US presidential election Harris leads Trump Polymarket predicts Harris has a 52% chance of winning, Trump 45%.

Politics
0001Sesame Amberjack★.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:06:02.38ID:7+owRy3y9
Polymarket’s forecast shows that Vice President Kamala Harris has a higher chance of winning the next presidential election than former President Donald Trump. Harris has a 52% chance of winning compared to Trump’s 45%. Additionally, the US Presidential election prediction market on Polymarket is the largest with trading volume exceeding $572 million. ■Harris has also begun to approach the cryptocurrency industry
Cryptocurrency policy is considered to be one of the key issues in this US presidential election. While Biden was seen as a tough candidate for the cryptocurrency industry, the Harris campaign has now begun to approach the industry. Democrats are launching a new advocacy group called “Crypto for Harris,” which plans to hold a town hall on Wednesday. The event will feature crypto industry leaders including Crypto Council for Innovation CEO Sheila Warren and billionaire Mark Cuban. Meanwhile, Trump has repeatedly voiced his support for Bitcoin. Elon Musk, known for his affinity with cryptocurrencies, announced that he will hold a live interview with Trump on Twitter at 10 a.m. Tuesday (Japan time). Related threads
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ハリス副大統領の支持率がトランプ氏を追い抜く、米大統領選の行方は混沌 [ごまカンパチ★]
「トランプ氏は詐欺師」 全米自動車労組トップが批判、ハリス氏支持表明 [ごまカンパチ★]
【2024米大統領選】献金が爆増! 民主党カマラ・ハリス氏がティム・ワルツ氏を副大統領候補に指名で寄付が殺到 [ごまカンパチ★]
ハリス氏が接戦州でリード、「立場が劇的に逆転」 米大統領選の調査 [ごまカンパチ★]
〈支持のうねり起こすハリス〉急速に集める「ブロック票」、“異例”の動きはどこまで続くか [ごまカンパチ★]
米FRB、大統領から独立して決定下すべき─ハリス副大統領 [ごまカンパチ★]
ハリス氏が支持率リード拡大、トランプ氏に5ポイント差=ロイター/イプソス調査 ★2 [ごまカンパチ★]
米大統領選、ハリス氏がトランプ氏をリード|Polymarketの予測で - CRYPTO TIMES
Polymarketの予測で、カマラ・ハリス副大統領の次期大統領選挙勝利の確率がドナルド・トランプ前大統領を上回りました。 ハリスの勝利確率は52%に達し、トランプの45%を上回っています。また、Polymarket上で
トランプ氏、大統領はFRBの金融政策に「発言権持つべき」 揺らぐ中央銀行の独立性 [ごまカンパチ★]
「エール大で学び、資金援助を受けてキャリアを積んだ。中間層ではない」 ワルツ氏、貧困家庭出身を強調する共和党バンス候補を批判 [ごまカンパチ★]
サマーズ元財務長官、トランプ氏の提案について 「あまりにもひどい考えにがくぜん」 金融政策に大統領の発言権求める「愚か者」 [ごまカンパチ★]
ハリス氏、労働者層や進歩派の有権者に訴求へ-ワルツ氏起用の狙い ハリス氏の支持率は51%、トランプ氏の48%をリード [ごまカンパチ★]
0111Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:52:22.86ID:CLo8ofqw0
>>1
Even if you add them up, it doesn’t become 100, so who’s the remaining 4?!
0002Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:06:54.61ID:DcKtn+310
A windfall president.
0085Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:41:58.18ID:Zp3RXCuK0
>>2
There are a lot of people who dislike both Biden and Trump.
0003Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:07:48.62ID:TlfIgsFK0(1/3)
This woman definitely isn’t there.
0038Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:19:38.82ID:pmTWUlqt0(1/2)
>>3
If Harris gets sick, don’t come here again!
0008Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:10:20.33ID:0V0Z5RWj0
Is that a prediction?
0011Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:11:17.30ID:elcIV70E0
After all, everyone hates old people.
0013Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:11:45.70ID:8LOFuoGL0
Does this mean I have to shoot it again?
0014Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:12:36.90ID:qsEbzU800
Good luck Harris.
0016Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:12:44.54ID:Yo3jaXb00
Good job, keep it up lol.
0017Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:13:05.41ID:S5nTRJ7S0(1/6)
Liberal, person of color, woman If Harris wins, it will be a total denial of Trump supporters.
0020Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:13:42.37ID:ZXBrlpHC0
Japan too seems set to be in a bind in the political correctness pressure festival.
0022Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:14:38.45ID:PUNnKWXw0
(Harris)
Votes of color
Votes of women
Husband is Jewish
Too strong.
0023Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:14:48.13ID:S5nTRJ7S0(2/6)
I don’t hate Trump that much, I don’t like Trump supporters, so I don’t like Harris, but I’ll vote for her. There seem to be a lot of Americans who think this way.
0094donguri!Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:45:05.56ID:+vNekBWn0
>>23
So true, the way Trump supporters, including Japanese people, think and act is so terrible.
0027Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:15:32.50ID:V8MQSK3V0
Ahhh, it looks like the yen will start to weaken again.
0031Security guard [lv.4].Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:16:44.57ID:TwyQdsrj0
Even if Harris becomes president, will he be able to get along well with Russia and Islamic countries? I feel like he’ll be completely underestimated lol.
0053Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:24:06.95ID:pmTWUlqt0(2/2)
>>31
That’s not something you should worry about!
0033Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:17:42.54ID:ZMCyQzOM0
It’s decided by Harris!
0040Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:20:29.60ID:060twwrm0(1/2)
Did Americans really think the Democratic administration was that good? Do they think the current state of public safety and immigration policy is okay?
0041Security guard [lv.28].Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:20:38.11ID:wuPNU2V80(1/2)
Even if the survey is biased, the overall trend leaves no doubt that Harris has the lead.
0044Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:21:24.46ID:060twwrm0(2/2)
Didn’t Trump win the last election, even though the Democrats were in the lead?
0047Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:22:49.28ID:vQdPYNGQ0(1/2)
To Americans, Jews are what brought wealth to America, and being anti-liberal is almost synonymous with being anti-Semitic.
0049Security Guard [lv.9] [Sprout].Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:23:18.99ID:2Cnf1dFW0
That wouldn’t be more peaceful.
0050Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:23:27.22ID:zyNdR6QD0
I like Trump, but I don’t think he’ll win this time, and I think it would be better if he doesn’t win.
0052Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:23:33.88ID:FcTt6uqP0(1/9)
Originally, there were about 10 million more Democratic supporters than Republicans.
0054Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:24:10.50ID:MuOxNpdp0
This is the one Ippei is betting on.
0055Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:24:27.76ID:G8vIcaPT0(1/2)
Japan is in trouble.
0056Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:25:04.53ID:Fhgoxrjd0
What is that? As a Q-anon, I want Mr. Trump to win, have the presidency passed on to Trump Jr. via Vance, and have America transformed into a dictatorial, authoritarian, hereditary state like North Korea that will wreak havoc on the world.
0058Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:25:19.08ID:e+0VuXHI0
Trump is no good.
0060Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:30:58.45ID:8C+XdD050(1/6)
Political correctives have gone too far! I woke up! That’s all Trump supporters can say. How pitiful lol.
0061Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:31:10.26ID:ljVwwx9m0(1/27)
The miraculous photo of the assassination attempt was cool, but Trump isn’t amazing, just the photographer is. The reason his approval rating didn’t go up much is because Americans were surprisingly calm.
0078Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:39:49.12ID:8C+XdD050(2/6)
>>61
Sympathizing with the victims and supporting the people who attacked the Capitol after the last election are two different things.
I was surprised at how many people in the Japanese internet community don’t think about this separately.
0063Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:31:42.01ID:eu/2bcgc0
Trump was surprisingly unpopular.
0064Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:31:47.68ID:O4DSSezJ0(1/6)
There is precedent, so nothing is more unreliable than opinion polls for the US presidential election.
0066Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:33:50.40ID:ljVwwx9m0(2/27)
>>64
I think this was more of a betting odds than a poll.
According to one theory, this is the most severe and reliable.
0096Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:45:30.24ID:4tnkZWOo0(2/19)
>>64
Is this just sour grapes? What a shame.
Trump will lose by a large margin this time.
0074Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:37:37.62ID:O4DSSezJ0(2/6)
>>66
Isn’t it a voting system that uses virtual currency?
Well, I’m not a polymaker, but in the previous election, over 60% of people predicted Hillary would win, but she lost,
so I’m thinking it’s possible that the media is just pulling out data that suits them.
0069Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:35:51.50ID:745CLjUS0(1/3)
This is the case in Japan as well, but it’s nothing more than public opinion manipulation in the name of opinion polls.
0080Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:40:25.19ID:3CwkVnmH0
If Harris wins, the LA Olympics four years from now will be just like the Paris Olympics.
0082Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:41:12.86ID:8C+XdD050(3/6)
>>80
The netouyo got angry at the opening ceremony, but if the netouyo get angry, then it’s okay to keep getting like that, right? lol.
0090Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:44:11.24ID:S5nTRJ7S0(3/6)
If Harris gets a lot of votes even if Trump wins, it means that most Americans accept political correctness.
0101Anonymous Donburako.Aug. 12, 2024 (Mon) 18:47:23.97ID:lIG5QL3o0(1/4)
I guess it means “old people stay away” lol. Trump’s own boomerang.
Reference: https://asahi.5ch.net/test/read.cgi/newsplus/1723453562

Other languages: 米大統領選、ハリス氏がトランプ氏をリードPolymarketの予測で勝利確率はハリス52%、トランプ45%

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