A prominent Chinese economist says, “China’s local economies are finished.”

Politics
0001Insect encyclopedia ★.Aug. 30, 2024 (Fri) 08:48:57.47ID:14iBKwDS
I had missed it, but on June 10, 2024, Guan Qingyou, a well-known Chinese economist, posted the following on Weibo (it has now been deleted and can no longer be viewed): First, let me introduce Guan Qingyou. He is a prominent Chinese economist, particularly known for his incisive analysis of the Chinese economy. He originally served as vice president of Minsheng Securities, and currently provides economic commentary and commentary to various Chinese media and academic institutions. What’s interesting is that Guan Qingyou sometimes speaks frankly about the challenges and risks facing the Chinese economy. This post can also be seen as one of Guan Qingyou’s frank statements. The “core finances” mentioned in the statement refers to the finances of local governments. Specifically, it refers to the financial situation of China’s local governments, especially basic administrative units at the county and municipal levels. Local governments manage the provision of public services, infrastructure development, and spending on education and health, but when they lack the financial resources to support these, they find themselves in financial difficulty. In his post, Guan Qingyou states that “the basic finances are almost in a state of collapse,” warning that the local government’s finances are in an extremely severe situation. It’s “almost collapsed,” so to put it simply, it’s “the end.” (Yoshida Hunting @dcp).
A prominent Chinese economist says,

中国の地方経済はもう「おしまい」
見逃していたのですが、中国で著名な経済学者である管清友(かんせいゆう、GuanQingyou)さんが2024年06月10日、Weibo(微博)に以下のような投稿を行っていました(現在は削除されており閲覧できません)。「基層財政がほぼ崩壊状態
0009<丶`∀´>(´・ω・`)(`Ha´ )san.Aug. 30, 2024 (Fri) 09:05:32.24ID:37CCllMq
>>1
~What’s interesting is that Guan Qingyou sometimes speaks frankly about the challenges and risks facing the Chinese economy. This post seems to be one of Guan Qingyou’s frank statements.

Do you think there is freedom of speech in China?

Is China really the best?

0002<丶`∀´>(´・ω・`)(`Ha´ )san.Aug. 30, 2024 (Fri) 08:50:11.79ID:+GYK1q8o
This economist will be eliminated.
0003<丶`∀´>(´・ω・`)(`Ha´ )san.Aug. 30, 2024 (Fri) 08:55:19.16ID:aQZprrXx
Expose the honest people hiding in a country of liars.
0006<丶`∀´>(´・ω・`)(`Ha´ )san.Aug. 30, 2024 (Fri) 08:57:06.41ID:HiRc3LZn
It’s not just a local thing.
0007<丶`∀´>(´・ω・`)(`Ha´ )san.Aug. 30, 2024 (Fri) 09:04:05.42ID:F7GocOxa
Kyoto and Osaka are full of Chinese tourists, but China’s economy doesn’t seem to be doing too badly.
0008<丶`∀´>(´・ω・`)(`Ha´ )san.Aug. 30, 2024 (Fri) 09:05:22.85ID:/b1S3IlY
>>7
Aren’t they Taiwanese?
0010<丶`∀´>(´・ω・`)(`Ha´ )san.Aug. 30, 2024 (Fri) 09:06:01.00ID:d+E/fO+Z
>>7
Is that the case for the wealthy or Communist Party members?
0011<丶`∀´>(´・ω・`)(`Ha´ )san.Aug. 30, 2024 (Fri) 09:06:28.64ID:wNnIcGH0(2/2)
>>7
Nowadays you need a visa, so only a handful can get one issued. Unlike before, people with low incomes won’t be issued.
0024<丶`∀´>(´・ω・`)(`Ha´ )san.Aug. 30, 2024 (Fri) 09:26:07.38ID:8dG7mOrA
>>7
Chinese products are still being sold all over the world, and Japan buys a lot of them, so some Chinese people
are rich, and although the middle class is declining, it still exists, and the population is large
But I think it’s definitely tough when you look at the country as a whole
Unlike Japan, China can abandon some Chinese people and make them slaves.
0052<丶`∀´>(´・ω・`)(`Ha´ )san.Aug. 30, 2024 (Fri) 11:14:48.07ID:vBZcDPvp(2/2)
>>7
The people coming to Japan are probably from major cities, not regional cities.
0014<丶`∀´>(´・ω・`)(`Ha´ )san.Aug. 30, 2024 (Fri) 09:10:09.72ID:vh1Q2DFc
Xi Jinping was actually a rising star that would bring China to decline. Thank you Emperor Xi Jinping.
0017<丶`∀´>(´・ω・`)(`Ha´ )san.Aug. 30, 2024 (Fri) 09:13:07.03ID:ZLkgXNdf
Since it is managed centrally, there is no need for cardiopulmonary bypass.
0020<丶`∀´>(´・ω・`)(`Ha´ )san.Aug. 30, 2024 (Fri) 09:19:34.92ID:CwQjRmy7
No need for heart and lungs lol.
0021<丶`∀´>(´・ω・`)(`Ha´ )san.Aug. 30, 2024 (Fri) 09:19:43.05ID:4v5DoZ4y
China is no good anymore → I’ll flee overseas → That’s right! If I criticize the Chinese economy, I might have a chance of defecting?
0022<丶`∀´>(´・ω・`)(`Ha´ )san.Aug. 30, 2024 (Fri) 09:20:57.02ID:sREka+D4
This is sounding like the central economy is still fine.
0023<丶`∀´>(´・ω・`)(`Ha´ )san.Aug. 30, 2024 (Fri) 09:23:22.05ID:YX10IkDq
There are defeatists in every country.
0025<丶`∀´>(´・ω・`)(`Ha´ )san.Aug. 30, 2024 (Fri) 09:30:34.90ID:hTL2x2zN(1/3)
Will this be enough for local areas?
0028<丶`∀´>(´・ω・`)(`Ha´ )san.Aug. 30, 2024 (Fri) 09:37:06.46ID:gKyEcIEv
When the water level in a pond drops due to a drought, the shallows start to dry up. The fish gather in the center where there is still water, and eventually they all dry up and die, jostling each other. It’s a similar situation in Japan.
0029<丶`∀´>(´・ω・`)(`Ha´ )san.Aug. 30, 2024 (Fri) 09:44:52.10ID:69cJEFm5
The privileged and slave classes are organized into a class society, so when that structure itself collapses, China will split apart.
0032<丶`∀´>(´・ω・`)(`Ha´ )san.Aug. 30, 2024 (Fri) 09:47:32.13ID:imjpasmm
A plan to crush the Chinese Communist Party 30 years ago

Economic growth = teaching luxury

Farmland converted into factories and housing


Economic sanctions ← here we are

Countdown to the collapse of the Chinese Communist Party through civil war.

0036<丶`∀´>(´・ω・`)(`Ha´ )san.Aug. 30, 2024 (Fri) 10:01:50.33ID:p1GrIsok
>>32
That’s just like history.
0033<丶`∀´>(´・ω・`)(`Ha´ )san.Aug. 30, 2024 (Fri) 09:52:00.21ID:dsWqGWdx
China’s dumping of exports is nothing but a nuisance.
0035<丶`∀´>(´・ω・`)(`Ha´ )san.Aug. 30, 2024 (Fri) 10:00:11.42ID:sY6jsyzQ
China is now focusing on drone transportation, including for humans, hydrogen energy, and quantum computing, and is trying to grab a share of the global market.
0063Discussion of changing board settings is underway in the self-governance thread.Aug. 30, 2024 (Fri) 12:25:39.19ID:zm1lZs5q
>>35
The problem is that developed countries are trying to close imports from China.
0039<丶`∀´>(´・ω・`)(`Ha´ )san.Aug. 30, 2024 (Fri) 10:12:02.39ID:mIosqod9
A country doesn’t perish unless something extraordinary happens. Especially if imperialist territorial disputes are rejected like in today’s world. However, when a dictatorial government is unable to achieve economic growth and only spreads chaos and absurdity, the people’s discontent becomes a target…
0040<丶`∀´>(´・ω・`)(`Ha´ )san.Aug. 30, 2024 (Fri) 10:17:33.68ID:QfAsa7t5
Isn’t it over outside the regions too?
0041<丶`∀´>(´・ω・`)(`Ha´ )san.Aug. 30, 2024 (Fri) 10:26:16.17ID:C0eivOQH(1/2)
A local government in China is an administrative unit like “Province of X”, so be careful not to use the same meaning as city vs. region. I hear that Shanghai and Shenzhen are also in a difficult situation, but since it’s related to China, it’s best to take it with a pinch of salt. Also, the person who wrote article 1 tends to exaggerate things and give numbers without evidence, so I think it’s best to take it with a pinch of salt.
0047<丶`∀´>(´・ω・`)(`Ha´ )san.Aug. 30, 2024 (Fri) 10:48:07.54ID:+thJk7j5
Was there a beginning?
0051<丶`∀´>(´・ω・`)(`Ha´ )san.Aug. 30, 2024 (Fri) 11:13:11.99ID:vBZcDPvp(1/2)
>>47
It started when the real estate bubble caused buildings to pop up all over the country, and it ended when they realized they had no value and fell into ruin.
0053Discussion of changing board settings is underway in the self-governance thread.Aug. 30, 2024 (Fri) 11:18:19.56ID:C0eivOQH(2/2)
>>47
Maybe around the time the Reform and Opening Up policy started.
0054Discussion of changing board settings is underway in the self-governance thread.Aug. 30, 2024 (Fri) 11:20:11.74ID:rlDpKtER
The gap between people is widening and they will need to let off some steam somewhere.
Reference: https://lavender.5ch.net/test/read.cgi/news4plus/1724975337

Other languages: 中国の著名経済学者「中国の地方経済はもう『おしまい』」, Un famoso economista chino dice “La economía local de China ya está terminada”.

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