China’s deflationary spiral enters dangerous new phase early action may be needed.

Global Economy
0001paradise★.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:12:18.96ID:Pd84f3dc9
Continuing deflationary pressures in China are now starting to spiral negatively. This could lead to a worsening economic outlook for the world’s second-largest economy, and there are growing calls for early policy action. China’s consumer price index (CPI) data released on the 9th confirmed that prices in most of the economy, except for food prices, are only barely rising amid falling incomes. China’s deflation risk grows: Core growth at lowest in three years, aggressive measures needed? (3)
According to analysts from BNP Paribas and other banks and Bloomberg Economics, the gross domestic product (GDP) deflator, which indicates price trends in the Chinese economy as a whole, is expected to remain negative through 2025. The economy has been in negative territory for five consecutive quarters through April-June this year (second quarter), and if expectations are correct, this will be the longest deflationary phase since data began in 1993. Xing Ziqiang, Morgan Stanley’s chief China economist, cited falling wages and said the Chinese economy is “definitely in deflation, and probably in the second stage of deflation.” “Japan’s experience suggests that the longer deflation continues, the more Chinese authorities will eventually be forced to resort to additional stimulus measures to overcome the problem of debt deflation,” he said. Source below.

中国のデフレスパイラル、危険な新局面入り-早期の措置が必要にも
中国で続くデフレ圧力が、ここへきて負のスパイラルに陥りつつある。世界2位の経済規模を持つ同国の景気見通し悪化につながりかねず、早期の政策対応を求める声が高まっている。
0002Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:12:56.70ID:yabptc610
How many years are you going to keep saying the same thing?
0006Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:14:17.48ID:fFo41yoq0(1/2)
>>2
Well, when you look at the news, it seems like the Chinese economy is in a tough spot.
The economic news is all about falling real estate prices and deflation.
0065Security Guard [lv.5] [Sprout].Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:59:45.62ID:5DDqVYGP0
>>2
As long as communism lasts, right? 🥹.
0085Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 13:40:07.93ID:Rs9E4keB0
>>2
I wonder if this is for real
In fact, a major real estate company has defaulted on its loans.
0004Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:14:00.93ID:CbgiV/CH0
What did it mean to study Japan?
0058Rolling.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:49:56.81ID:88moi2W10
>>4
As a result of their research, they came to the conclusion that the collapse of the Japanese bubble was boring because it wasn’t flashy enough.
0061Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:50:33.33ID:zhT1vGhX0
>>4
Even if the bubble bursts, the national polity can be preserved.
0082Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 13:32:38.71ID:9GqU7nSU0
>>4
I made Japan teach me everything. Everything from how to manufacture products to how to manage employees to how to trade with Europe and the United States. And by just doing what I was taught, I didn’t grow at all.
0088Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 13:41:17.49ID:GAaWh/tZ0
>>4
Japan has four seasons.
0008Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:15:13.43ID:SMHiyRDa0
They’re quick to respond to policies, but their moves are shitty in substance.
0009Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:15:45.44ID:4zkqAi6W0
For over 20 years now, people have been saying every year that “China’s economy is in trouble! It will collapse within a few years!”, but when will China’s economy actually get worse?
In reality, GDP has been rising steadily…
0013Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:18:34.79ID:ie5G+Faz0(1/2)
>>9
That’s true. What’s interesting about this country is that while youth unemployment is on the rise, overall unemployment remains below 5%.
0015Security Guard [lv.7] [Sprout].Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:18:47.71ID:kHbUrMW30(1/2)
>>9
GDP (ruins).
0020Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:21:46.31ID:fFo41yoq0(2/2)
>>9
Seriously speaking, GDP is naturally going to increase.
Every country has a steady increase over the long term.
(Even in Japan, it is higher now in both nominal and real terms than it was 34 years ago in the bubble era in 1990.)
The problem is the speed. Countries like India are growing so fast that it is predicted to surpass Japan next year.
0035Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:32:12.35ID:Q2rd2Pe70
>>9
It’s a country that will grow even if real estate reduces GDP by 30%. It’s really an amazing country lol.
0036Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:32:43.06ID:WJxOUY4F0
>>9
Seriously speaking, this kind of news only covers a part of the story.
The Communist Party is implementing such haphazard policies with nothing but momentum.
There are two extremes: the areas that are growing and the areas that are sinking.
0056Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:48:52.21ID:eoi2hatC0(1/2)
>>9
GDP goes up even if you borrow money.
China is the one that keeps inflating it.
0099Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 13:57:23.54ID:7JVlDM+60(1/9)
>>9
China’s GDP is just the numbers coming from the regions, and local officials are inflating it drastically to make it look like they’ve made progress.
Do you believe that?
0111Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 14:17:41.71ID:poArO42z0(1/2)
>>9
First of all, GDP is a big lie (even the Chinese themselves say so)
The bubble burst and the sudden economic downturn became apparent in the last 3-4 years
Now it’s affecting the people too, with deflation, wage cuts, unpaid wages, and a wave of unemployment
This is the first time something like this has happened in the last 30 years of rapid growth.
0011Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:17:14.73ID:3UTha4JC0(1/2)
Like Japan, if you borrow money, make wasteful investments, create a bubble, and then when that bubble bursts, you’ll have deflation. That’s obvious, right?
0014Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:18:47.46ID:HGYiaHoN0
Deflation is better than stagflation.
0079Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 13:27:50.89ID:4F9iPSmO0(2/2)
>>14
That’s right.
0018Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:21:23.52ID:pzl15Y/70
No matter what we do, it’s no good lol. The only thing left is to assassinate Communist officials or protest at Tiananmen Square lol.
0019Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:21:43.11ID:nGkftHTB0
There’s porridge.
0022Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:22:58.07ID:Qhzyj1vm0
The funds for the growth rate fraud are disappearing fast. What will they claim as growth next?
0024Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:23:45.07ID:igWFpgfQ0(1/2)
If China experiences deflation and imports decrease, Japan’s profits will decrease.
0027Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:28:22.93ID:kQCBRV/Q0(3/3)
>>24
Cosmetics and baby products. Japanese companies are suffering due to the poor economy and the rise of domestic manufacturers. Local car manufacturers have also developed, and Japanese manufacturers are finding it difficult to compete in the world’s largest market. There may be a Chinese company that takes the world by storm, selling cheap products strengthened by deflation.
0028Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:28:45.27ID:5Imeiueq0(2/3)
>>24
When Hotate was advertised outside of China, it did really well and got back to its previous state, so they just need to stop relying on China.
0026Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:25:39.97ID:kQCBRV/Q0(2/3)
The Japanese economy will never recover even if Japanese right-wingers diss China.
In fact, jobs for China, whether it’s scallops, cars, or electronic parts, are extremely important to Japan.
I’m worried that Chinese defence spas will take away Japanese companies’ market share.
The Chinese economy will never recover even if Chinese right-wingers diss Japan.
The domestic situation is tough and Europe and the US are imposing tariffs, so it would be better to work together with South America, Asia, and Africa.
In any case, no matter how much the Chinese right-wingers make a fuss about Japan, it’s useless.
0029Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:29:02.60ID:xmQ7/5HM0
The great Xi Jinping, the head of the Chinese Communist Party, will do something about it. Xi Jinping is trying to surpass Mao Zedong. It’ll be a piece of cake.
0030Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:29:28.92ID:hrrDzrCQ0
Like Japan, China will not be able to recover unless it implements large-scale monetary easing.
0031Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:29:43.68ID:9dBfBeGa0(1/2)
The Japanese government should quickly impose 100% import tariffs on BYD.
0032Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:29:44.03ID:5Imeiueq0(3/3)
Xi Jinping is so talented, I really hope he can continue for another 20 years.
0033Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:31:29.48ID:9dBfBeGa0(2/2)
Kimpei’s entourage lacks the ability, I see them as inferior to Shinjiro.
0034Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:31:33.04ID:Bjnv/Xa10
Don’t come to Japan.
0040Security Guard [lv.5] [Sprout].Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:36:42.41ID:aEefUnhc0
The deflation that followed the collapse of the bubble economy is very similar to that experienced in some other countries.
0042Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:37:46.12ID:7/TS0cO10
China is an invincible country, but where is the burden going?
Did something happen somewhere, like they were unable to repay huge amounts and defaulted?
0043Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:38:11.65ID:2IxZ6PZK0
There isn’t a single post about Japan, so I guess their economy is in such bad shape that they can’t even hire the Wumao. Whenever China had money, there were always posts like this.
0044Anonymous Donburako.Sep. 10, 2024 (Tue) 12:38:19.70ID:igWFpgfQ0(2/2)
With the declining birthrate and aging population, tax increases will be necessary, and deflation will accelerate.
Reference: https://asahi.5ch.net/test/read.cgi/newsplus/1725937938

Other languages: 中国のデフレスパイラル、危険な新局面入り早期の措置が必要にも, La espiral deflacionaria de China ha entrado en una nueva y peligrosa fase y se necesitan medidas inmediatas.

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