According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India contributes 16% to global economic growth and China 34%. There is a growing expectation that “India will become the next China,” but for this to happen it is said that India needs to maintain nearly double-digit growth for a long period of time. The employment environment is tougher for those with higher education. The Indian economy seems to be on a roll, but there are many challenges ahead. The most pressing issue is to improve the country’s low ability to create jobs. The unemployment rate for fiscal 2022 (April 2022 to March 2023) rose to 5.4% from 4.9% before the Modi administration took office (fiscal 2013). The unemployment rate for young people aged 15 to 29 is over 16%, and the more educated people are, the more difficult their employment environment becomes. According to an analysis by Citigroup, at the current growth rate (7%) India will only be able to create 8 to 9 million jobs per year, but 12 million jobs will need to be created annually to absorb the new young people entering the domestic labor market. There are two main reasons for India’s low job creation capacity: (1) The manufacturing sector’s share of GDP is 17%, which is one of the lowest among developing countries. (2) The proportion of small and medium-sized enterprises in non-agricultural employment is also around 40%, which is quite low compared to the global average. On August 26, the Reserve Bank of India (the central bank) announced the launch of a lending platform for small and rural businesses. The move is intended to address large unmet demand for funds in small and medium-sized enterprises and other sectors, but it is unclear whether it will lead to an improvement in the employment market. Power outages, flooding, water shortages, environmental pollution and fragile infrastructure are also major problems. In India, where the entire power infrastructure is underdeveloped, sudden power outages still occur. Expanding nuclear power generation is essential to ensuring a stable supply of electricity, but nuclear power accounts for less than 2% of India’s total electricity generation. Although the Indian government is trying to expand the introduction of this technology with the cooperation of the private sector (Nihon Keizai Shimbun, September 14th), it must be said that there is still a long way to go. Heavy rain disasters are also on the rise. On September 14th, during the rainy season (monsoon), heavy rain caused parts of the gardens of the cultural heritage site of the Taj Mahal to become flooded. At the end of July, heavy rains caused landslides in a popular tourist destination in the southern state of Kerala. Meanwhile, serious water shortages are occurring, which are beginning to have a negative impact on economic activity. In March, a water shortage in Bangalore, a major business city, caused disruptions to business activities across the board. US ratings agency Moody’s Investment Services warned in June that water shortages could have a negative impact on India’s credit rating. Water pollution is also at an alarming level. When he was elected to parliament, Modi pledged to “clean the Ganges,” but the situation has not improved at all. The problem of urban waste is also worsening day by day. On September 5th, a research team from the University of Leeds in the UK announced the results of an analysis that found that India has the largest amount of plastic waste dumped into the environment in the world, at 9.3 million tons (as of 2020). Indian authorities estimate that only two-thirds of the 170,000 tonnes of garbage produced every day is properly disposed of, with the rest dumped illegally. Relations with China and the coalition government…Modi’s centripetal force is not only the domestic issues of concern, but also the urgent need to improve relations with China. India’s long-term development requires it to integrate into global supply chains, which will inevitably mean strengthening ties with the Chinese economy. But relations between the two countries have remained tense since clashes along their border in the Himalayas in May 2020. This has led to a stagnation in the exchange of capital, technology, and human resources in areas such as electric vehicles (EVs), semiconductors, and artificial intelligence (AI), but the Indian government has recently begun to take steps to ease tensions. On September 10, External Affairs Minister Jaishankar said, “We are not closing the door to investment from China.” In response to pressure from the business sector, the government has also begun to ease visa restrictions for Chinese nationals (Reuters, September 11). But there is no guarantee that this trend will continue. Modi successfully established his third term in government in June, but is stumped by his first experience of running a coalition government. There are also concerns about the party’s declining appeal, as it has been forced to withdraw important policies due to opposition from coalition parties. The eastern state of Bihar, the stronghold of the regional party Janata Dal (United Faction), which formed a coalition to secure a majority of seats, is one of India’s poorest regions, with a large number of low-caste people. For this reason, unificationists are said to have strong protectionist tendencies. At this stage, it would be extremely difficult for India, which is facing both internal and external troubles, to become a “second China.” Kazuhiko Fuji.
>>1 Seriously, it’s about money and technology. Any country can become a developed country if they invest and transfer technology. On the other hand, there is no developed country that is willing to sacrifice its own country for investment or technology transfer, so in the last 100 years, there have only been a handful of countries that have become developed countries.
>>1 Are they worried that they might overtake China? China will not grow any more, it will just crash. The world is wary that they might do something when that crash occurs. An attack on Taiwan would be a double-edged sword, though.
It’s already clear that caste is the cause of everything, given that India is dominated by IT, a relatively new profession that has nothing to do with class discrimination.
As long as the Indian caste system exists, no matter how talented you are, as long as class structures remain firmly in place, you cannot achieve a high position. In that respect, China may be better, even though it is somewhat communist.
Even if the population is large, there is the question of how much of that population is incorporated into the economy. They are desperately trying to scrape together some money now.
Indians can’t use chopsticks and have poor hygiene standards. The Asian race, especially Chinese and Koreans, have historically been dominated by other countries, so they are submissive to the stronger and have high reproductive rates. They are ideal for manufacturing workers. Last year’s iPhone was a flop due to issues with products made in India. The 16 will be made back in China.
1. The caste system 2. It seems that about 1% of the population already controls half of India’s wealth, so no matter how many young people there are, it won’t change anything.
Here’s why: i.imgur.com/yk1ppjv.jpeg Indians have a lower IQ than Westerners and East Asians At best, they can only develop to the level of South America or North Africa.
I get sick of seeing the footage of people flocking out every time there’s a major accident. Some people come to help, but most people just come to watch.
There is no shortage of workers, the population pyramid is stable so there are no financial insolvency cases, and China is collapsing starting from the local governments.
That’s probably impossible because the caste system divides people into classes. Is Britain so busy sucking blood that they haven’t done anything about reform? I can once again understand how amazing it is that the Japanese were able to teach an illiterate, coprophilic nation how to read, write, use the abacus, and use the toilet.
Indians don’t work seriously enough that Apple has to move their factory. They work to have money to spend, then when they get paid they take time off work. Then when they run out of money they come back to work again. It’s a national character where you can’t work the same way every day, every week, and every month.
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