The beginning of the end．．． The “Ishiba shock” will send shock waves through the market at the start of the week． With the presidential election and expectations for Takaichi， the yen will strengthen and stock futures will plummet．
The market was hit by the “Ishiba shock” following the victory of former Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba (67) in the LDP presidential election held on the 27th. Hopes for a victory for Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Sanae Takaichi (63) were dashed, and the yen’s appreciation in the foreign exchange market accelerated by about 4 yen to the dollar, from the 146 yen range to the high 142 yen range, and the Nikkei average stock price futures plummeted by about 2,500 yen. There are fears that the market will be extremely volatile at the start of next week. Following Takaichi’s first-round vote in the presidential election, the foreign exchange market was dominated by yen selling in anticipation of the possibility that Takaichi, who is opposed to the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hikes, would win, and the yen accelerated its depreciation to the 146 yen range against the dollar. However, after Ishihara, who is known for his criticism of the massive monetary easing of Abenomics, won the runoff election, speculation spread that he would approve further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan in the future, encouraging buying of the yen. In the stock market, expectations for Takaichi’s emphasis on the continuation of Abenomics also fuelled the Nikkei average on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, which surged 903 yen to 39,829 yen, closing at its highest level in about two months on the 27th. However, the victory of Ishihara, who took the opposite approach, led to a wave of disappointed selling in after-hours futures markets and elsewhere. During the presidential election, Ishihara briefly proposed “strengthening taxation on financial income,” causing Nikkei average futures to plummet by 2,400 to 2,500 yen in markets in Osaka, Singapore, and Chicago. The trend of a weak yen and rising stock prices that began at the end of 2012 has continued despite some twists and turns, but with the birth of the Ishiba administration, there were some voices of caution on social media that this was “the beginning of the end of the Abenomics market.” [Yukan Fuji] 2024/9/28 (Sat) 17:00.
>>6>>1 The monetary easing of Abenomics is intended to support consumption by the working generation, which has been weakened by the aging population and the mismanagement of the Democratic Party government. We are still in deflation due to an aging population, and the export industry destroyed by the Democratic Party administration has not been revived, so even if interest rates are raised, consumption by the working generation will decrease, leading to a recession.
The reason why they crash so often is because 30,000 or 40,000 is a stratospheric aerial battle, and the ideal altitude for the Nikkei average is around 10,000.
Soichiro Tahara: “Mr. Abe declared that ’unprecedented monetary easing and aggressive fiscal spending will definitely lead to economic growth,’ but the economy never grew at all. So, Mr. Abe told me, ’Abenomics has been a failure. “Tahara-san, what should we do?’’ he said.
There will be a lot of sell orders on Monday so I won’t be closing until around 9:30. Then, a buying spree occurs and the price rises for a while, but the rise then stops. Take this opportunity to secure your sell balls. This selling ball is going to shine.
>>48 The Bank of Japan has already changed course. There are always people who can’t act quickly, so even if there’s a crash at the start of the week, people who can manage it well can easily escape.
I sold Chinese stock mutual funds because they were rising abnormally, but was the market at a high price? The timing changes, so I wonder if they will fall because of Ishiba.
>>52 This is the first time in constitutional history that a new president has activated the Nikkei average futures circuit breaker immediately after being elected.
It’s a small, remote area where the market capitalization of just two companies, Apple and Microsoft, could buy all the companies listed on the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
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