Mohamed El-Erian, president of Queen’s College, University of Cambridge, said the better-than-expected U.S. employment report reminded us that “inflation is not dead.” He said the U.S. Federal Reserve needed to refocus on fighting rising inflation. “This isn’t just about a strong labor market,” El-Erian said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on the 4th. For more details, see Source 2024/10/4 23:53.
And yet, there is said to be a country in the East ruled by idiots who are forcibly raising prices to create inflation in order to get more tax money, causing suffering for the people.
>>5 Inflation rate in Japan is 2-3%. This is the inflation rate targeted by central banks around the world. It is said to be the optimal value for economic growth and employment not to worsen.
The probability of global war is increasing, so black swan events are more likely to occur, and it is unclear how the U.S. economy and the global economy will develop.
The employment statistics were good. There are concerns that inflation will rise as workers shop more and demand increases. It is expected that the Fed will raise interest rates again. The money supply grew during the COVID-19 pandemic, but has almost completely recovered and has recently grown slightly. It is analyzed that the current inflation is due to rising wages and the global trend of cost-push inflation.
It’s interesting to look at the money supply. It certainly boosts the economy, but even if you withdraw the money, the economy doesn’t go down, so it can’t eliminate inflation.
Even if the hourly wage becomes 1500 yen, if the value of the yen is half, isn’t it meaningless? Please tell me if you know anything about this. Should I make a foreign currency deposit? I’m wondering if I should convert the 8 million yen I saved up over 20 years into dollars.
>>24>>1 The reason prices are so high in Japan right now is because the US and Europe are giving out too many subsidies during the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to abnormal inflation that is now spreading to Japan. Inflation cannot be stopped by Japan alone because it is caused by factors outside of Japan. As a major importing country, prices in Japan will be dragged down by import prices and will eventually converge to a single point (similar to prices in Europe and the US), but the only way to get there is to approach it from above or from below. Japan has been in a state of deflation, which has kept price increases more subdued than in Europe and the US, but the overall rate of price increase has not yet reached those of Europe and the US. The reason why the yen is weak now is because America is raising interest rates to stave off inflation in the country, and the dollar is being bought in response to the higher interest rates. If inflation in the United States subsides, the United States will also begin to lower interest rates, and the weak yen will be resolved. If deflationary Japan were to raise interest rates, it would suffer the double whammy of a recession caused by slowing consumption and rising prices.
>>29 Interest rates will start rising in February 2022 and reach 5.5% in July 2023, but the unemployment rate was 3.5% in July 2023, but it rose to 4.3% in July 2024, so it’s only a slight increase.
>>29 I think it’s the opposite. Liquidity is too high (=inflation), so interest rates are being raised at a level that has little impact on unemployment.
>>35 A war of that magnitude would only create so much employment in the related sector. It would be different if they fought something as spectacular as WWII.
>>36 Japan gives them the parts for free, so you can make a lot of money just by assembling them. The defoliant used in Vietnam was made by Mitsubishi.
Nikkei futures have risen to around 39,400 yen. If it continues like this, it will likely do well on Monday. The problem is the situation in the Middle East. If Israel targets Iran’s nuclear facilities, it will plummet.
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