[Washington = Takami Kosuke] Federal Reserve Chairman Powell appeared before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs on the 9th to testify before Congress. At the beginning of the Q&A session, he stated, “Given the decline in the rate of price increase and the slowdown in the employment situation, inflation is not the only risk,” expressing concern that a delay in lowering interest rates could lead to an economic downturn. Financial markets are expecting interest rate cuts to begin as early as September.
US price indexes rose in January-March, but returned to a slowing trend in April-May. … (The following is a paid version, 570 characters remaining)
>>1 The yen is weak now because the US is trying to calm the abnormal inflation caused by excessive COVID-19 economic measures by raising the policy interest rate.
A rise in the policy interest rate gives the rich a safe investment opportunity and raises the mortgage interest rates of those who have nothing.
A rise in the policy interest rate suppresses prices while widening the gap between rich and poor.
Whether the abnormal price rise will not subside and will lead to hyperinflation, or whether the gap between rich and poor will continue to accelerate abnormally
It is the US that is being forced to make a decision, and it is the dollar that is on the verge of an economic crisis.
You”d better keep your investments in dollar assets to a moderate level.
>>4 It would have been best to do it a year and a half ago, but the longer the US rate cut is delayed, the greater the chance the BOJ will raise interest rates (the impact of the US rate cut and the Japanese rate cut overlapping would be too terrible, so this is something that should be avoided at all costs).
>>5 I”ve heard this for years, but of course the dollar will fall and US stocks will fall at some point. I already have a lot of unrealized gains, so even if it halves, it”s still a profit. It”s hard to tell when it will go up or down, so amateurs have no choice but to stay in the market. If you could predict it, you”d be rich.
Children who should have been getting more nutrients during this high price period are now receiving less, and future Olympic medal candidates have disappeared. It”s all the fault of the Abe, Kuroda and Ueda Liberal Democratic Party.
If Trump, who hates a weak dollar, becomes president, will the yen strengthen? In terms of the total dollar and yen, the dollar-to-yen exchange rate is expected to converge from 110 to 120 yen.
The monetary base can also be affected by exchange rate fluctuations. Takahashi Yoichi is a total amateur when it comes to investing, so don”t just take his word for it.
Home prices, which make up a large part of personal consumption, are rising and sales are falling. Home prices act as a leading indicator of consumption. ≒ Americans are suffering from high interest rates. Trump is a trash real estate agent, so he wants to lower interest rates.
At the time of the intervention in May, there were many posts saying that the yen would not weaken any further because the US would soon be lowering interest rates.
When interest rates start to be cut, people sell stocks and rush to buy US Treasury bonds. The new NISA group has been appointed to support the government this time. The interest rate bill comes back to haunt us, and the deterioration of corporate performance and unemployment will come later. That”s how it feels.
Even if they are cautious, they are slow to act. Once the unemployment rate starts to rise, a significant interest rate cut is needed to bring it down. But the Fed is slow to act and cannot take that step. With Trump”s tax cuts and other measures in the wings, a large interest rate cut would lead to inflation.
The BOE gets ahead of itself and then corrects course if it makes a mistake, but the BOJ Ministry of Finance continues to push ahead with its mistakes.
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