Takahashi Yoichi: Why election exit polls have been unreliable recently: “There are liars… Basically, the media is not trusted.” Former Cabinet Secretariat adviser, economist, quantitative policy scholar, and professor at Gakushu University, Takahashi Yoichi, appeared on Nippon Broadcasting System’s “Kakihana Masato Anata to Happy!” on the 21st. He mentioned the election exit polls. The program talked about the House of Representatives election, which will be held on the 27th. The election results released when the votes were counted at 8 p.m. became a hot topic. Takahashi said that election results are based on exit polls, saying, “Exit polls used to be thought of as correct, but recently there have been a lot of people who will purposely lie and say, ’This is from the media,’ when they refer to it as an exit poll. The bottom line is that the media is not trusted.” When TV personality and announcer Tadashi Kakihana commented, “It’s not that we’re trusted, but that we’re disliked,” Takahashi explained, “So when we say we’re from the media, it feels like our research can’t be trusted,” and continued, “That’s why I think everyone’s nervous at 8 o’clock. It’s up to each company to decide whether to release it or not.”
>>3 My decision is that if I answer with one company, I can be sure to get statistics, so everyone will come to me and then I’ll say something different from the left, right wing, economics, local news, etc., and do an exit poll to see how the predictions change.
There was one time when an exit pollster from the Asahi Shimbun was at the polling station. “Which candidate did you vote for?” “Mr. XX from the LDP” “Proportional voting?” “LDP” It was obvious that he was getting increasingly angry as we exchanged words like this, lol.
Someone once asked me if I was from TV Asahi, so I voted for the Communist Party and answered that I voted for the Communist Party in the proportional representation vote. I would never vote for the Communist Party though.
The accuracy would be higher if they properly interviewed people who voted last minute, but they cut corners and just make predictions, which is embarrassing.
Apparently they haven’t delivered all the envelopes needed to vote in time for the election, so it’ll be difficult to get interviews, and maybe even do exit polls before the election.
Last week I went to city hall in the morning and there were some old people at the entrance answering what looked like a questionnaire. I wonder if they were doing exit polls for the early voting.
>The number of people who lie on purpose has increased dramatically. The whole family’s faces are being filmed on camera. There’s no way that’s possible. The survey is just for show; they’re already creating the numbers from the start. You saw how the opposition party’s vote started off at zero, 140, and was later revised down to 90.
Has there ever been a case where a candidate was declared the winner only to actually lose? I guess they only declare a candidate the winner in an electoral district if they are extremely confident about it.
It’s true that I don’t answer the truth. At first I answered properly, but after I realized how uncomfortable it was to be face to face and have my answers read later, I started writing the opposite of everything. Also, if you take your child (teenager) to vote absentee, there’s a high chance they’ll talk to you (because there aren’t enough samples of young people).
There have always been people who give false answers. Exit polls are done every time there’s an election, so they know what percentage of people will lie, and they adjust for that before predicting the number of seats. Even if you all give false answers, it won’t affect the outcome.
I have never been asked to take an exit poll, but my wife, who went with me, was asked to take an exit poll three times. I guess there must be some standard for judging appearance. I hate the media, so I’m definitely going to lie after I change my clothes.
>>51 The polling station has a set number of responses per gender and age group, so if the pollster has met the quota for responses from men, they will no longer ask men to respond.
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