Lee Jae-myung as President: Strained Japan-South Korea Relations Ahead

If the progressive (left-wing) Lee becomes president, South Korea’s diplomatic strategy will be completely different from what it is now. In particular, with Lee being known as an “anti-Japanese fighter,” it is expected that Japan-Korea relations will become even tougher than they were under the Moon Jae-in administration. Lee, who will overturn all previous diplomacy with Japan, has criticized the Yoon administration as a “pro-Japanese, traitorous government.” The first impeachment bill against President Yoon, which was drafted primarily by the Democratic Party and submitted to the South Korean National Assembly on December 4, even listed Yoon’s “pro-Japanese diplomacy” as one of the reasons for impeachment. “(President Yoon) is under the pretext of so-called ‘diplomacy of values,’ ignoring geopolitical balance, viewing North Korea, China, and Russia as enemies, and sticking to a strange Japan-centric foreign policy. By implementing policies such as appointing people with pro-Japan leanings to key government positions, the country has isolated itself in Northeast Asia, spurred the threat of war, and abandoned its national security and its duty to protect its citizens.” (From the first impeachment bill submitted to the National Assembly on December 4)
Representative Lee is expected to overturn all of the diplomacy toward Japan that has been pursued by the Yoon administration. First, there is a very high possibility that the issue of lawsuits filed by former forced laborers, which had remained underground within the Yoon administration, will once again emerge as an urgent issue between South Korea and Japan. If Lee comes to power, the “third-party payment plan” will be scrapped, and the government will likely return to the Moon administration’s approach regarding the unresolved compensation payments. This is because, in addition to the three plaintiffs mentioned above who rejected the third-party payment proposal, there are new plaintiffs who have won their cases in the first instance. There are said to be at least 60 lawsuits pending involving former forced laborers. The foundation’s funds are said to only have 300 million won remaining. With a shortfall of at least 12 billion won as things stand, the Yoon administration’s “third-party repayment plan” could end in bankruptcy. If President Lee Jae-myung is elected, the scenario may move forward to “selling the Korean assets of Japanese companies and paying compensation to the families of former forced laborers.” The Japan-Korea GSOMIA, which has the theory that “Japan is a military enemy nation,” is also expected to be scrapped. At a summit meeting held in Japan in March 2023 between then-Japanese Prime Minister Kishida and President Yoon, the leaders of the two countries declared the “normalization” of the Japan-South Korea GSOMIA. Lee responded, “There is a possibility that the Japanese Self-Defense Forces will be stationed on the Korean Peninsula. We must fight and prevent it,” he said, inciting opposition supporters. He has long held the opinion that “Japan is a military enemy nation” and has been strongly opposed to the Japan-Korea GSOMIA. There is also a possibility that a movement to revoke the UNESCO World Heritage designation of the Sado Island Gold Mine in Niigata Prefecture will be launched in South Korea. If Lee becomes president, he may work with the Democratic Party, which holds nearly 170 seats in the South Korean National Assembly, to draft some kind of anti-Japanese bill, which could incite anti-Japanese sentiment among South Koreans. Under the current circumstances, the only way to prevent Lee from winning the presidency is for a final trial and ruling on his violation of the Public Offices Election Act to be made before the next presidential election. Lee was charged with violating the Public Offices Election Act for making false statements during the last presidential election, and was sentenced to one year in prison with two years’ probation in the first trial in November this year. If this ruling is upheld in the final hearing, Lee will be stripped of his right to run for office for the next 10 years and will be unable to run in the next presidential election. The Supreme Court must issue a final decision within six months, which could come as soon as May next year. If the guilty verdict is upheld in the second trial, expected to take place in February next year, there is almost no chance that it will be overturned at the final trial. Even if President Yoon is impeached by the National Assembly, the impeachment deliberations will take two to three months. Will the results of the impeachment deliberations come first, or will the final hearing of Lee’s trial come first? This will determine the fate of South Korea. Kim Kyung Cheol Previous thread.

「日本は敵性国家」「これまでの対日外交をすべて覆す」李在明が大統領になれば日韓関係は文政権時代よりも険しくなる [12/14] [昆虫図鑑★]

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